Consumer confidence: inflation expectations rise
• Consumer confidence increased 0.8pts to 81.1 pts. The four-week moving average fell 0.4pts to 81.7pts.
• ‘Weekly inflation expectations’ rose 0.3ppt to 5.3%, however the four-week moving average was stable at 5.2%.
• All four financial and economic conditions subindices improved.
• ‘Current financial conditions’ (over last year) increased by 0.4pts and ‘future financial conditions’ (next 12 months) rose 1.4pts.
• ‘Short term economic confidence’ (next 12 months) lifted 1.0pts and ‘Medium term economic confidence’ (next five years) increased 3.6pts.
• The ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex softened 2.5pts.
ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk said: “ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 0.8ptslast week, but not enough to offset the 3.2pt drop the week before. Household inflation expectations jumped 0.3ppt to 5.3% following the stronger than expected Q1 CPI data. While inflation expectations are at a2024 high, it is important to keep in mind that the pre-COVID historical average (2010-2019) for the series is 4.8%; consumer inflation expectations tend to track above actual inflation.
Confidence is still very low at just 81pts, reflecting the sharp decline in real per capita household disposable income. We expect a material improvement in both measures later in the year in response to the Stage 3 tax cuts.”