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ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads: decline stalls in Q1

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads fell 1.0% m/m in March following an upward revision in February to -2.1% m/m from -2.8% m/m. In trend terms the series was down 0.4% m/m.  Despite the annual fall of 10.6%, ANZ-Indeed Job Ads is still 32.1% higher than pre-pandemic (that is, 2019 average) levels.


ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk said: “The pace of declines in ANZ-Indeed Job Ads has eased. In fact, there was no change in the average number of Job Ads in Q1 2024 compared to Q4 2023. Similarly, the average unemployment rate in the first two months of Q1 is currently unchanged from Q4’s 3.9% result. While we expect to see a further moderation in Job Ads, the recent stickiness in the series implies it is unlikely to be a linear path downward and suggests we will only see a gradual rise in unemployment. Indeed, while ABS job vacancies fell 6.1% q/q in February and 23.5% since the May 2022 peak, there hasn’t been a corresponding increase in the unemployment rate."


Indeed Senior Economist, Callam Pickering said: “In March, the decline in ANZ-Indeed Job Ads was driven by New South Wales and Western Australia. Job Ads in New South Wales have fallen in 10 of the past 12 months, more than any other state. Tech hiring remained subdued in March, with Job Ads for software development, IT operations and information design falling once again. Job Ads for these tech sectors are down by between 31% and 39% over the past year. In March, Job Ads fell in 60% of occupations, above the 38% monthly average in 2024 so far, but well below the near universal declines towards the end of last year.”


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