Inflation expectations surge on CPI
• Consumer confidence decreased 1.5% last week, its fifth straight weekly decline. Among the mainland states, confidence increased in NSW and SA, while it was down in Victoria, Queensland and WA.
• ‘Weekly inflation expectations’ jumped 0.5ppt to 6.6%, its highest weekly value in over a decade. Its four-week moving average rose 0.3ppt to 6.1%.
• The subindex results were mixed. ‘Current financial conditions’ fell 2.9%, dropping to its lowest since the early stages of the pandemic. ‘Future financial conditions’ fell 4.2%, dropping 11.4% over the past three weeks.
• ‘Current economic conditions’ were down 4.3%, after a 1.5% decline the week before. ‘Future economic conditions’ rose slightly by 0.7%.
• ‘Time to buy a major household item’ rose 2.7%, after declining 11% over the previous three weeks.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented: "Consumer confidence decreased 1.5% last week, with the federal budget having no clear positive impact. The Q3 CPI hitting a 32-year high has pushed household inflation expectations to 6.6%, their highest since February 2011.
"The share of people who think they are financially worse off than the same time last year has risen to 47%, the highest value for this indicator in over three decades. Cost of living concerns, along with expectations of more rate hikes by the RBA, have caused confidence to decline to levels last seen during the early weeks of the COVID lockdowns. This is also reflected in the 15.6%
decline in confidence among people paying off their mortgages over the past six weeks.
"The continued decline in confidence seems to finally be having some impact on spending. ANZ data for October indicates the usual run-up in spending seen late in the month is not occurring."