"ANZ Job Ads rose 0.4 per cent m/m in March, to be up 57.5 per cent on the pre-pandemic level. Labour demand is elevated and continuing to grow, confirmed by ABS job vacancies data which showed a rise of 6.9 per cent q/q in February to a new record high." ANZ Senior Economist, Catherine Birch said.
"80 per cent of businesses reported replacement/resignations as a reason for vacancies, 48 per cent due to increased workload and 26 per cent due to expansion. Other ABS data shows the number of people leaving their job due to a better job or wanting change continues to rise.
The share of employed who do not expect to be with their current employer in 12 months due to seeking other employment remains well above the pre-pandemic level. Together these indicators point to further solid employment gains and upward pressure on wages growth.
In February, employment rose by 77k, well above market expectations of 37k. Unemployment dropped to 4 per cent even as the participation rate rose to a record high of 66.4 per cent and population growth started to recover, with the civilian population (15 years and over) estimated to have risen by almost 19k during the month.
The 2022-23 Budget showed Treasury expects the labour market to tighten further, forecasting the unemployment rate to reach 3¾ per cent in Q3 and remain there until mid-decade.We are more optimistic, forecasting an unemployment rate in the low-3s by the end of this year, which presents upside risk for fiscal revenue."