Nov 01, 2021
ANZ Job Ads: slingshot
ANZ Australian Job Ads1 rose 7.4 per cent m/m in November, as restrictions eased further after the lockdowns were lifted in October. National employment fell in October against expectations of a rise, but this ANZ Job Ads result signals a strong rebound is imminent.
"ANZ Job Ads jumped 7.4 per cent m/m in November to be a record 44.2 per cent above the pre-pandemic level. This reflects the robust recovery in NSW, Victoria and the ACT as restrictions eased, with newly lodged job ads2 up 16.9 per cent in NSW, 15.2 per cent in Victoria and 12.5 per cent in the ACT in October, according to the National Skill Commission (NSC)." ANZ Senior Economist, Catherine Birch.
"While employment fell 46k in October against market expectations of a 50k rise, the latest ANZ Job Ads data signal a sharp rebound is imminent. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2 per cent in October and may be bumpy in the coming months depending on the pace of recovery of employment versus participation."
"ANZ Job Ads suggests the unemployment rate should drop back below 5 per cent in the near term, and we expect it to fall to around 4 per cent by the end of 2022 and even further in 2023."
"Underemployment is also likely to be much lower. Adding to the labour market’s positive near-term outlook, NAB’s October survey showed businesses were already in recovery mode as business conditions and the employment index jumped back above the long-run average and the improvement in business confidence accelerated. We think competition for labour will get even hotter and workers will exercise their new power by changing to better jobs and asking for higher wages in 2022. In our view, that should push wages growth up to around 3 per cent y/y in H2 2022."