ANZ Senior Economist, Catherine Birch, commented:
Victoria’s reopening has sparked an acceleration in the Job Ads recovery through October and November, with ANZ Job Ads up 27% over the two-month period. While regional Victorian restrictions started easing earlier, Melbourne’s restrictions have lifted progressively since 28 September. Accordingly, our Australia-wide high frequency indicator shows activity has risen to just shy of its trend level and Victorian spending has surged.
We expect this will translate into further significant employment gains in Victoria in the near-term, following the 87k rise in October. ANZ Job Ads are on track to match or even exceed pre-COVID levels by yearend. This suggests that the rebound in national employment could continue into early-2021 at least, although the lagged recovery in full-time employment remains a concern. There are other challenges to face in 2021, not least the end of JobKeeper. Even if employment gains persist, it will be a lot longer before underutilisation can be brought back down to a satisfactory rate.