ANZ Senior Economist, Catherine Birch, commented:
The ANZ Job Ads recovery maintained a steady pace into October, rising
9.4% m/m. Job Ads have now regained more than three-quarters of the plunge
they took in March and April.
As we noted last month, though, we think Job Ads will need to exceed prepandemic
levels for some time to ensure the ongoing recovery in employment
and reduce labour market underutilisation. SEEK data show its job ads are
already above pre-pandemic levels in most states and the Northern Territory,
but there is some way to go in the ACT, New South Wales and Victoria.
Nationally, ANZ Job Ads are still 13.5% below their February level, but the
reopening of Melbourne will provide a boost from November.
As direct fiscal support drops off, leading some businesses to close or downsize,
we expect some employment losses. But we may not see the same effect on Job
Ads, as it seems unlikely that many businesses in a tenuous position would be
recruiting. Business and consumer confidence will be critical to a sustained
improvement in hiring activity and employment growth though.