ANZ Job Ads: Down but not out
ANZ Australian Job Ads plummeted in May, but recovered strongly in the last week of the month.
We think this indicates much of the decline for the month as a whole was due to the April ‘holiday year effect’ and the timing of the election. In seasonally adjusted terms, job ads fell 8.4% m/m and 14.9% y/y. This is the weakest monthly result since Jan-2010 and the steepest annual fall since 2013. In trend terms, job ads fell 1.8% m/m and 10.1% y/y.
ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:
“Job ads were down sharply in May, which at face value points to a sharp slowing in employment growth. But we think there is a good reason why this decline is not representative of reality. Job ads plunged in the last week of April, which we think was due to the ‘holiday year’ effect that happens when ANZAC Day and Easter are close together. We think the run up to the federal election contributed further to delaying job postings. Consistent with this explanation, postings in the last week of May (ie after the election) were considerably higher than in the previous four weeks. If the last week of May is indicative, then job ads will rebound strongly in June.”