ANZ Job ads: Gloomy start to 2019
ANZ Job Ads fell 1.7% m/m in January and were 3.7% below the January 2018 level. This is the first annual decline since April 2015.
In trend terms, job ads fell by 0.5% m/m, the eighth consecutive month of trend declines. The trend declined 0.7% on a yearly basis; the first such decline since August 2014.
“ANZ Australian Job Ads slipped into negative annual territory in January for the first time since March-April 2015. The decline in job ads is consistent with a range of other data suggesting the economy lost momentum in the second half of 2018.It is not surprising that this loss of momentum is translating into weaker job ads. This should show up in actual hiring in due course, though employment does lag other parts of the economy. As evidence of this lag, we note that employment growth actually accelerated in the last three months of 2018, even as other indicators of the economy pointed to a loss of momentum. We also note that the level of ANZ Job Ads is consistent with ongoing employment growth. Other indicators such as the ABS Job Vacancy data are also painting a more positive picture of the labour market.”