ANZ SENIOR ECONOMIST, FELICITY EMMETT, COMMENTED
“Despite its fourth consecutive weekly fall, confidence remains well above its long term average.
Notably, last week’s deterioration in sentiment was driven by a fall in current financial conditions and the ‘time to buy a household item’ subindex. Though they sit above their long term averages at the moment, we will be closely watching these indexes as they are well correlated with retail sales and spending more broadly. Retail sales reports for April and May surprised on the upside, but further deterioration of these subindices could indicate weakness in spending going forward.
Stepping back from the weekly volatility, aggregate financial conditions have tracked sideways in June, while aggregate economic conditions have edged up slightly despite renewed concerns about global trade. Overall, consumers remain quite optimistic despite high levels of debt and falling house prices.”
Please see the attached document for further details.